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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
DRIVING THE DAY
CAMPAIGN DEATHWATCH — “Vivek Ramaswamy struggles to gain traction with Iowa Republicans as critics question his path ahead,” by AP’s Margery A. Beck and Adriana Gomez Licon in Council Bluffs, Iowa: “While [VIVEK] RAMASWAMY is packing his schedule with stops across Iowa, he has failed to move up in the 2024 Republican primary race and is increasingly at risk of becoming an afterthought.”
TRUMP VS. THE GAG — Washington is relatively quiet this morning. The House and Senate are out and this afternoon President JOE BIDEN departs for his annual Thanksgiving vacation in Nantucket.
But over at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, judges are weighing a big decision.
On Monday a three-judge panel heard arguments in DONALD TRUMP’s appeal of District Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s gag order in the D.C. election subversion case.
The session went on much longer than scheduled and both sides struggled to answer questions at the heart of their opposition’s arguments in the case. (You can listen to the full audio of the hearing at this link.)
While it might seem like a technical legal fight over a single administrative issue in one of the many Trump cases, the battle over the gag order is about something much bigger.
In his filings objecting to the order, Trump repeatedly emphasized his status as a presidential candidate.
“The Supreme Court has ‘never allowed the government to prohibit candidates from communicating relevant information to voters during an election,’” Trump’s lawyers wrote in the first line of their appeal of the order. “Accordingly, no court has ever imposed a gag order on the political speech of a candidate for public office, let alone the leading candidate for President of the United States — until now.”
In other words: I’m running for president, so gag order rules can’t apply to me.
At oral arguments about the gag order, Chutkan repeatedly emphasized Trump’s status as “a criminal defendant.”
“He is facing four felony charges. He is under the supervision of the criminal justice system,” she said. “He does not have the right to say and do exactly as he pleases. … No other criminal defendant would be allowed to do so and I am not going to permit it in this case.”
In other words: Nobody forced you to run for president so gag orders apply to you as much as any criminal defendant.
In yesterday’s arguments, one judge, PATRICIA MILLETT, zeroed in on Trump’s candidate-centric defense, and repeatedly demanded to know if Trump’s lawyer, JOHN SAUER, would still argue that the gag order was unconstitutional if Trump were not a political candidate.
Yes, it would, Sauer said, but the fact that Trump is a candidate is “the crown jewel” of their First Amendment arguments in the gag order appeal.
This argument seemed to carry more weight with the three appeals judges than it did with Chutkan. And the ACLU has said it agrees with Trump on the matter and thinks the order should be narrowed, which is where most legal observers of yesterday’s hearing believe the appeals court is headed.
If so, it would be a significant vindication of the larger Trump strategy.
The presidential race is entering a phase where courtroom legal strategy is becoming more intertwined with campaign political strategy.
Trump has been enormously successful at using his status as a criminal defendant as a sword in his campaign: Vote for me — I’m a victim of the Biden Deep State!
Now he’s using his status as a presidential candidate as a shield in the courtroom: You can’t gag me — I’m running for president!
The gag order fight is one of the first big tests of this strategy, and it might work. We can expect many collisions between the campaign and the courtrooms over the next months — over scheduling, witnesses, jury selection, allegations against the Biden administration, other First Amendment claims, etc.— and pretty soon the dynamic may define the 2024 presidential election.
Those skirmishes, however, will be nothing compared to what might happen if Trump is convicted and then elected president.
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
BIG READ — “Chinese Forced Labor Processed the Fish Sticks in Your Kid’s School Lunch,” by Ian Urbina for POLITICO Magazine
TODAY IN MADISON — Wisconsin Public Radio: “The Wisconsin Supreme Court will hear oral arguments Tuesday in a redistricting lawsuit that seeks to declare Republican-drawn voting maps unconstitutional, a move that could shift the balance of political power that has existed in the state for more than a decade.”
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY
On the Hill
The House and the Senate are out.
What we’re watching … It’s Election Day in Utah’s 2nd congressional district, where Republican CELESTE MALOY will face off against Democratic state Sen. KATHLEEN RIEBE for the right to succeed GOP Rep. CHRIS STEWART, who resigned in September. What’s notable about the race is less about the partisan stakes — Maloy is expected to win handily in a district that routinely handed Stewart about 60% of the vote over the past decade — and more about House arithmetic: When the winner is sworn in, the House will be back to its full complement of 435 members for the first time since Rep. DAVID CICILLINE (D-R.I.) resigned on May 31. More from AP
At the White House
Biden will hold a meeting on U.S. efforts to counter the flow of fentanyl in the morning. Later, Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will travel to Nantucket.
VP KAMALA HARRIS has no events on her public schedule.
PLAYBOOK READS
2024 WATCH
MARK YOUR CALENDARS — The Commission on Presidential Debates announced the dates for three general election debates next year on Sept. 16 at Texas State University in San Marcos, Texas; on Oct. 1 at Virginia State University in Petersburg, Va.; and on Oct. 9 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. The vice presidential debate is slated for Sept. 25 at Lafayette College in Easton, Penn.
More context: “The announcement comes despite the Republican National Committee mulling rules changes that would force presidential candidates seeking the party’s nomination to sign a pledge saying they won’t participate in any debates sponsored by the CPD,” AP’s Will Weissert reports. “Such a boycott would shake up the foundations of the way presidential elections have been conducted in the country for decades.”
Top-ed: “The Potemkin 2024 Presidential Debate Commission,” by the WSJ editorial board: “Next year’s wild election might be a time to try something new.”
Another key date: The Democratic National Convention Committee is inviting news organizations interested in covering the 2024 Democratic National Convention to a media walkthrough on Jan. 18 at the United Center in Chicago. More from Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times
More top reads:
- Progressives are pitching Biden’s reelection campaign on the idea of endorsing a plan to expand Americans’ Social Security benefits, Adam Cancryn reports. “The proposal, they argue, would be broadly popular with an electorate that ranks Social Security among the top issues they care deeply about.” Still, “[t]here’s skepticism among some in the president’s orbit who say Biden’s message on protecting benefits versus Republicans seeking cuts is already well established.”
- New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU is hitting the campaign trail alongside former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and CHRIS CHRISTIE as he decides who to back in the 2024 Republican presidential race, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports: “Sununu told Fox News Digital that his endorsement would also be much more than just a one-day announcement. ‘If I get behind a candidate, I’m going to get behind a candidate,’ he emphasized.”
CONGRESS
IMPEACHMENT LATEST — As they continue their investigation into Joe Biden and family, House Republicans are working to tie up loose ends on its impeachment inquiry by the end of the year. Amid continued skepticism from GOP-centrists, the conference plans to depose HUNTER BIDEN in December with proponents pushing for a vote on impeachment articles as early as January, Jordain Carney reports this morning.
More details: “Republicans would likely accuse the president of improperly using his political office to further his family’s business dealings — though they haven’t yet found a smoking gun to that effect and some members acknowledge that seems increasingly unlikely … Though Republicans can draft and file articles without a locked-in whip count, impeachment backers will need near unanimity to actually recommend booting Biden from office, since it’s virtually assured no Democrat would vote to impeach Biden.”
Speaking of impeachment … Adam Wren has a new Q&A with former GOP Rep. PETER MEIJER, who was ousted after voting to impeach Trump. The Michigan Republican, who is launching a comeback bid for Senate, has changed his tune on the former president and “said he’ll now support whomever the 2024 GOP nominee is, amid little doubt it’s likely to be Trump.”
“All of this is one of the clearest signs yet that even Trump’s critics are coming to terms with — and adjusting their politics to accommodate — the likelihood he’ll once again be the party’s presidential nominee.”
More top reads:
- House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON met with Trump last night at Mar-a-Lago, Punchbowl News reported, following Johnson’s endorsement of Trump earlier this month.
- “Food aid for low-income mothers, babies becomes spending flashpoint,” by Marcia Brown and Meredith Lee Hill: “At stake: whether the government will have to begin turning away large numbers of mothers and their children from the program, known as the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, or WIC, breaking with decades of precedent.”
- With former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s ouster derailing House GOP’s fundraising arm, Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN (R-Wis.) is just the latest “example of a Republican whose reelection is at risk,” The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam reports.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
DON’T YOU (FORGET ABOUT KYIV) — With international resources stretched thin amid the growing Israel-Hamas conflict, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made an unannounced visit to Kyiv yesterday to make the case to keep funds and weapons flowing to Ukraine, AP’s Tara Copp and Felipe Dana report: “While there Austin announced the Pentagon would be sending an additional $100 million in weapons to Ukraine from U.S. existing stockpiles, including artillery and munitions for air defense systems. … Austin said Ukraine’s effort to defeat Russian forces ‘matters to the rest of the world’ and that U.S. support would continue ‘for the long haul.”’
LATEST ON ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT — Amid persistent talk of an impending hostage deal and potential temporary ceasefire, White House national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN privately met with six humanitarian organizations yesterday to “discuss ways to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza,” Alex Ward and Erin Banco scoop “The six groups in attendance requested the conversation to present their view that only a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas would make it safe enough for assistance to reach those in need.”
“In the roughly 45-minute conversation, the groups discussed alternate routes to deliver aid to Gaza, including sending food and other assistance via maritime passages or the Kerem Shalom border crossing … The groups also broached the need for a deconfliction channel that would allow humanitarian organizations to operate more safely.”
More top reads:
MORE POLITICS
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: MONTANA MOVES — More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC supporting Montana Senate hopeful TIM SHEEHY, is going up today with a new radio ad as part of a $250,000 buy that will run statewide until Christmas. The minute-long ad touts Sheehy’s bio as a “pro-Trump conservative” and “a decorated Navy SEAL” and also knocks Biden’s immigration policies. A late-October poll from the group found Sheehy leading Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) in a potential GOP primary for Sen. JON TESTER’s (D-Mont.) seat. The NRSC recruited Sheehy and has urged Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, to stay out of the race.
TRUMP CARDS
FORGET ME NOT — WaPo’s Aaron Blake looks at how Trump’s improved public approval as he makes his second bid for the White House could have something to do with” Americans’ short political attention spans: “Some Trump critics have wagered that the recent polls could reflect a bit of amnesia when it comes to how Americans once felt about Trump — and, its proponents hope, a temporary bout of it.”
VALLEY TALK
AI ON THE BRAIN — “Microsoft CEO says OpenAI governance needs to change no matter where Sam Altman ends up,” by CNBC’s Jordan Novet and Ari Levy: “In his first press interview since [former OpenAI CEO SAM] ALTMAN’s ouster, [Microsoft CEO SATYA] NADELLA dismissed concerns of long-term damage at OpenAI and said that the critical artificial intelligence research continues as does the partnership with Microsoft.”
Related read: “OpenAI investors considering suing the board after CEO’s abrupt firing,” By Reuter’s Anna Tong, Krystal Hu and Jody Godoy
MEDIAWATCH
MAJOR X-IT — “Ken Paxton announces investigation of media group following Elon Musk’s lawsuit,” by the Texas Tribune’s William Melhado: “[Texas AG] KEN PAXTON announced an investigation Monday evening into Media Matters for possible fraudulent activity in response to the media watchdog group’s report last week that prompted companies to pull advertisements from X, the site formerly known as Twitter.”
PLAYBOOKERS
Donald Trump “has reduced his weight through an improved diet and continued daily physical activity,” according to a note from his doctor.
Joe Biden joined Threads … and had a lot of birthday candles this year.
Nikki Haley had a funny back-and-forth with a young eventgoer.
Jimmy Carter said writing a book together was “the worst threat” to his marriage to Rosalynn.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Presidential historian Tevi Troy is releasing a new book next August, “The Power and the Money: The Epic Clashes Between American Titans of Industry and Commanders in Chief” ($29.99). The book, which will be published by Regnery, looks at interactions between American presidents and big-name CEOs like Rockefeller, Ford, Musk and Zuckerberg.
MEDIA MOVE — Jamie Weinstein is now host of The Dispatch’s podcast on Mondays. He previously hosted “The Jamie Weinstein Show” podcast and is a Daily Caller alum.
TRANSITION — Kaysie Brown is now global policy director and strategist at the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. She previously was deputy lead negotiator on pandemics and senior adviser in State’s Office of Global COVID Response and Health Security.
WEDDINGS — Ashley Gutwein, LD and senior counsel for Rep. Zack Nunn (R-Iowa), and Jordan Ebert, banking and consumer finance counsel for the Senate Banking Committee, got married Friday in Naples, Fla. They met in law school in Michigan. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Lisa Kaplan, Matthew Rosenthal, Kunal Parikh and Kathleen Gayle.
— Katy Summerlin, a Darrell Issa and Doug Collins alum, and U.S. Navy Capt. Jon Baron got married Nov. 12 in Newport, R.I. Their first date was at Barca in Old Town Alexandria. Pic … Another pic
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Liana Baker, managing editor of the Bloomberg U.S. deals team, and Jeffrey Kleeblatt, an executive director at Morgan Stanley, welcomed Lexi Madelyn Kleeblatt on Nov. 8. She came in at 6 lbs 12 oz with a full head of hair. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and John Kennedy (R-La.) … Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) … Maryland AG Anthony Brown … ABC’s Rick Klein … POLITICO’s Oscar Santamarina … Punchbowl’s Mica Soellner … James Braid of Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R-Ohio) office … Betsy Dudley … Allison Iannarino … David Culver … Sarah Courtney … Mallory Shelbourne … Elizabeth Farrar of the Senate Rules Dems … Christopher “Gindy” Gindlesperger of the National Confectioners Association … Jon Adams … Bret Stephens … Kyle Nevins … Catherine Edmonson of Demand Signal … Joanna Liberman Turner … T.J. Tatum of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Jonathan Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League … Colby Moore … Judah Taylor … Tina Brown … former Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) … Matthew Agvent … NASFAA’s Maria Carrasco … Valerie Berlin of BerlinRosen … Emilia Winter Rowland of Rep. Summer Lee’s (D-Pa.) office … Brian Reisinger of Platform Communications
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