With Trump’s conviction by a New York jury on all 34 counts, there has been a lot of commentary to the effect that the judicial system worked. “Our legal institutions have held up,” Patrick Healy wrote in the Times. His colleague, the estimable Michelle Goldberg, in the same group discussion, added: “This is, I think, a reminder that Trump’s aura of invincibility can be pierced. That he loses in court again and again and again.”
And yet this was the least consequential of the four pending criminal cases against Trump. It involved fraudulent business dealings to disguise payoffs to a porn star, where the others, notably the Georgia election case and the federal case on the events of January 6th, involve stealing the Constitution. But those other cases have been delayed into political oblivion.
And some time in the next few days or weeks, the high court will hand down its ruling on whether a president is immune from prosecution entirely. In the oral arguments, pro-Trump justices tried to fashion a distinction between a president’s acts in his official capacity, and other possibly illegal activities.
On that basis, Trump allies on the Court could contend that in his tampering with the Electoral College count in January 2021 or his blatant attempt to steal votes in Georgia, he was only trying, in his capacity as chief executive, to ensure the accuracy of the election and thus cannot be prosecuted. That of course is a whopper, in a long string of whoppers by the Roberts Court.
In that respect, even though the general view has been that the New York Stormy Daniels case was the most peripheral of the cases relative to Trump’s more consequential crimes, we should be grateful that this was the one that went all the way to trial and verdict. It would be hard, even for this Court, to argue that Trump’s business frauds to disguise hush-money payments had anything to do with his official duties as president.
Yet in the latest Court scandal, in which a justice was caught flying pro-Trump flags at his homes, demands for recusal were shrugged off, showing once again that this is a kangaroo court. So the judicial system is working—but at the most consequential level, it is working in the wrong way. If the Court does toss the Georgia and January 6th indictments, on whatever grounds, the vindication that Trump claims will overwhelm any negatives from the New York conviction.
In the efforts to find grounds for hope in this bleak election year, there has also been commentary to the effect that the guilty verdict will now give pause to at least some voters who were leaning toward Trump. Indictments did not cost Trump any support, but polls have shown that about 7 percent of Trump supporters would be more inclined to vote for Biden if Trump were actually convicted. That’s not a huge number, but it could be decisive if it peeled away significant votes in swing states.
However, the galvanizing effect on MAGA supporters of Trump’s New York conviction could more than offset the loss of some swing voters. The last three elections—2018, 2020, and 2022—have been decided mainly by turnout. In those elections, relatively high turnout on the Democratic side saved the day. Now, with Biden far from a tonic for Democratic turnout and Trump supporters in a frenzy, the turnout factor could cut the other way.
Bottom line: The courts will not save us from Trump. If anything, corrupted courts will make a Trump victory in November more likely. Only one thing can save us from Trump, and that is politics. The public has seen all that it needs to see in order to vote against Donald Trump. What it needs to see is more reason to vote for Joe Biden. Once again, it’s Biden’s to lose.
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