As the threat of aggression haunts formerly occupied Baltic states that share a border with Russia and the war in Ukraine grinds toward its grim two-year anniversary, one country is trying to increase its influence at the United Nations by running for an elected seat on the Security Council.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics visited UN headquarters in Manhattan recently to launch his country’s candidacy for the Council’s 2026-27 term. It’s a long way to the election, but most countries begin campaigning years ahead.
“We were warning since 2014 that Russia would become a serious challenge,” Rinkevics said about the war in Ukraine. “But everyone somehow seemed to forget.”
When Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the world woke up “with quite a big headache,” he added.
If elected to the Council, it will be a first for Latvia, a country of 1.9 million.
Five Security Council members, called the “P5,” hold permanent seats: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. The other members, the E10, hold two-year seats on a staggered basis. They are elected through the UN’s five regional blocs: Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean and Western Europe (and Others Group). Montenegro is currently the only other country challenging Latvia for Eastern Europe’s single seat.
Latvia and its Baltic neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania, were occupied by the Soviet Union for 50 years. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, all three countries became members of the UN and joined the European Union and NATO in 2004.
Rinkevics was 18 when the Soviet Union dissolved. A first-year student at the University of Latvia, in Riga, the capital, he refers to what Russian President Vladimir Putin called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century” as the “optimistic decade.”
“It was a great feeling,” Rinkevics said. “We felt that everything we can achieve is just around the corner and that the world is going to be a much better place.”
Thirty-two years after the end of the Soviet Union, Rinkevics became Latvia’s first openly gay president — which he announced on X/Twitter — in July 2023. On Nov. 30, Russia’s Supreme Court, in an unprecedented ruling, designated “international LGBT” groups as “extremist,” enabling Russian authorities to wantonly prosecute members of the community.
Rinkevics was previously his country’s foreign minister for 12 years, a period in which the memories of the occupation and the threat of Russian aggression intensified with the country’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, followed by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Rinkevics called the war “a long effort” — with neither side even close to victory yet — and warned against thinking that everything is “fine and calm” in Ukraine.
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“Let’s not forget,” Rinkevics continued, “that Russia is digging in, that Russia is mobilizing its economy and its human resources to fight the long war. Now, it’s about strategic endurance.”
Una Bergmane, a Latvian who works as a research fellow at the University of Helsinki’s Aleksanteri Institute, a center for Russian, Eurasian and Eastern European studies, said that Russia remained an “existential threat” to Latvia and its Baltic neighbors.
“For Latvians, it’s an intergenerational trauma, you know? For almost all families there’s a family story about somebody who, in one way or another, suffered from the Soviet regime,” Bergmane said from Helsinki during a phone interview with PassBlue in late November. “I think when the full-scale invasion started, the anxiety level in [Latvian] society really went up to eight or nine [on a scale from one to 10],” shaping domestic politics and foreign policy.
“But now what we have seen, thanks to Ukraine,” she added, “is that the Russian army is not as mighty as we thought it was.”
An increase in the number of NATO troops stationed in the Baltic region has “reduced the level of stress in society to a six or a seven,” which Bergmane said was “still quite high.”
“Not only do people follow the news, very closely, about the war in Ukraine, but also there are so many Ukrainian refugees [in Latvia], and most people know somebody from Ukraine and they get these firsthand stories from refugees,” she added. In addition to the news, Latvians also have a “personal connection” with Ukrainians.
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, 45,000 Ukrainian refugees have registered for temporary protection status in Latvia. This number constitutes around 2.4 percent of the population and is the largest inflow of refugees in the country’s history.
Rinkevics spoke with PassBlue at Latvia’s mission to the UN, in a conference room with wide views of the city’s skyline, the East River and the UN’s manicured green lawns. The discussion covered Latvia’s bid for the Security Council, the Israel-Hamas war, international legal accountability for Russian aggression in Ukraine and the latter’s counteroffensive. He also noted the “long overdue” reform of the Council, a body that reflects the end of World War II “but not the reality of the 21st century.” –- DAWN CLANCY
The interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
PassBlue: What will Latvia bring to the Security Council if it wins an elected seat for the 2026-27 term?
Rinkevics: There are many limitations, but our focus will be advancing the national rules-based order, advancing empowerment of women, advancing Sustainable Development Goals and, as we have been, always advocating the reform of the Security Council.
PassBlue: Do you plan to highlight issues specific to the Baltic region? If so, what will you focus on?
Rinkevics: We are going to be a strong voice for upholding international law, wherever in the world it’s being challenged. Not only in Ukraine but also in the Middle East, or in Africa, or in Asia, or everywhere else.
PassBlue: That leads me to my next question on creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression in Ukraine. Latvia, a strong advocate for such a court, has been taking part in the legal discussions in the core group, led by Ukraine, in the last year. Where are the discussions now?
Rinkevics: The crime of aggression is there, but there is no court or ad hoc tribunal or international criminal court tasked to deal with [the crime of aggression]. So we need to modernize that system. Even if there are many skeptics saying, O.K., but you’re not going to see anyone from Russia being tried and convicted or exonerated, who knows. But if there is a mechanism, if there is investigation and if there’s evidence and the facts are gathered, then there comes the day when justice is going to prevail. But if we do not have any mechanism, then really all that international law is meaningless.
PassBlue: How do you propose the UN tackles Security Council reform? Do you think that any P5 member would give up veto power?
Rinkevics: So we have always been saying that [Council] reform should include a few elements. First, expanding [the number] of permanent members, including countries from Africa, from Latin America and from Asia. I’m not going to speculate which countries they should be, but at least the representation of those continents. Second is also expanding the number of seats of nonpermanent members. Let’s not forget, when the UN Security Council was created, it was 1945 and the world was a much smaller place when it comes to member states.
The third is the use of the veto. I think that there is already a very good initiative, and we are part of this initiative calling to exclude use of veto when serious human rights abuses, genocide or such kind of very serious crimes are involved. Or restraining the use of veto power for those members of the Security Council who are directly involved. I know this is very idealistic, but at least we need to put this on the table.
The fourth thing, because we have seen that the Security Council [is] not always efficient to discuss matters of peace and stability: now, when a resolution that has not been adopted by the Security Council, it is debated in the General Assembly and the General Assembly can express its opinion [on the matter]. I think it’s also the right step into the right direction.
PassBlue: I wanted to get your perspective on what is happening on the ground in Ukraine. Do you think the counteroffensive — begun in the late spring — has moved the country into a stronger position militarily?
Rinkevics: We thought when Russians attacked Ukraine in February 2022 it may take three days, three weeks, months, and Ukraine is finished. Ukraine has shown that it is fighting, that it’s able to fight back, but it needs much more assistance than we give it. This is not only a political decision; it’s also a practical issue of finding ammunition and putting the military industry in, let’s say, a more active production mode and so on. As you remember this year, there was a lot of discussion about counteroffensive, there were voices cautioning that this war is not winnable by one or two counteroffensives, but it is winnable by more weapons, more ammunition to Ukraine, more support when it comes politically or financially to [Ukraine] and more sanctions against the Russian Federation and Belarus, but it’s a complex undertaking. That’s where I think we should understand that this is not a great Hollywood movie, where you have two hours, and the last 20 minutes the good guys are winning and the bad guys are just disappearing.
Now, we should not divert our attention from Ukraine to other parts of the world. Having said that, what is happening in the Middle East, Israel and Gaza, is equally important. But I think that one thing we should understand is that if we forget or somehow neglect one part of the world, then we can wake up at one point with quite a big headache.
PassBlue: What is your view on implementing the two-state solution in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories? Do you think it is a viable option, especially after the Oct. 7 terrorist attack in Israel and Israel’s war in Gaza that has followed?
Rinkevics: I think that the two-state solution is this shining city upon the hill, to some extent. But my counterquestion would be, fine we can drop this idea, but what’s the alternative? Even if, at this point, the suggestion seems to be close to impossible, maybe there are incremental steps. But I think that still this needs to be kept as the higher goal, [yet] we need to acknowledge that Israel has the right to respond to the terrorist attacks against them and address the threat on one hand but also uphold all the international law and the principles of humanitarian law. Those people who are really suffering who are not part of any fighting, providing them with humanitarian assistance, this is probably the most pressing need.
PassBlue: You agree with Israel’s right to defend itself, but that it needs to do so within the bounds of international law. It sounds like you are saying that Israel is stepping a bit beyond that boundary.
Rinkevics: I’m really cautious at this point. We see a lot of news coming out, so there are facts and information that are not verified independently. But to discuss issues about delivery of humanitarian aid, I think is absolutely legitimate. We must address the issue of how you proceed with humanitarian corridors. The Latvian government has decided to provide humanitarian assistance to people in Gaza, but also there is a decision to provide more assistance to those who have suffered from terrorist attacks in Israel. Those very terrible pictures that we saw on October 7, they also should not be forgotten or discarded.
I remember what happened when the public in Latvia, for instance, saw the first pictures from Bucha and Irpin from all those atrocities conducted by Russians in Ukraine. This left enormous emotional scars on some public opinion. The same happened with Israel now. Also, there are pictures from Gaza. This is unfortunately a very ugly stage we live in.
PassBlue: When it comes to Israelis and Palestinians, you have an interesting perspective as someone who lived under Russian occupation. It seems like you can relate to the desires and aspirations of both the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Rinkevics: When I’m talking with officials from Israel or from Palestine, and I was foreign minister for Latvia for 12 years, and I’ve been visiting Ramallah and Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and meeting on the margins of many international organizations, they both have invoked this perspective. One is this occupation perspective and another is the country that the right to exist is being challenged by some of its neighbors. Latvia’s right to exist at one point was challenged by our neighbor. So you have two perspectives. That’s why I can feel both. Yes, we were occupied, and yes at one point, the sheer existence of the Republic of Latvia was not acknowledged by the Soviet occupation. By the way, if you look at some of the Soviet Russian propaganda outlets nowadays, they are talking about the fact that Ukraine does not have any right to exist.
Dawn Clancy is a New York City based reporter who focuses on women’s issues, international conflict and diplomacy. She holds a master’s degree from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism. Previously, she has written for The Washington Post and HuffPost.
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