How Trump could run for president from prison if convicted

Donald Trump was hit with his third indictment this week, with four charges that carry a maximum of 55 years in prison.

His laundry list of legal problems – including 40 federal charges in Florida, the Stormy Daniels hush-money case in Manhattan and a looming indictment in Georgia – means he will likely be on trial during the next White House campaign.

He is the odds-on favorite to be the Republican nominee for president and could be convicted and sentenced before Americans go to the polls in November 2024.

It means he and the U.S. are in an unprecedented position that poses the question: Can he still run for and be president if he is in custody?

‘We don’t know the timetables, the timetables of these trials,’ Timothy Naftali, a Senior Research Scholar at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, told DailyMail.com. ‘And we don’t know whether he’ll be found guilty. And we don’t know if if a portion of the Republican electorate will start looking for alternatives if and when some of these trials start.’

There are still a lot of unknowns, so DailyMail.com has broken down what happens if he is found guilty in one of his multiple cases.

WILL REPUBLICANS STILL SUPPORT HIM IF HE IS CONVICTED?

Answer: Probably, but doubts are creeping in.

The former president has much as a 30-point lead in most polls over his main Republican rival Ron DeSantis.

The gap suggests Trump may already be too far out of reach for the other candidates trying to catch him.

His MAGA base has been unwavering in their support, but recent polls have suggested a criminal conviction would give Republican supporters second thoughts.

Nearly half of GOP voters said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony, and 52 percent wouldn’t vote for him if he were in prison on Election Day, a Reuters/Ipsos released on Thursday found.

But there are some areas where the experts agree: that Trump can legally run for president should be convicted and sent to prison and that he could even have internet access to make his case via Truth Social or other social media platforms. However, he is likely unable to vote for himself should he be the nominee.

CAN TRUMP KEEP RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IF HE’S CONVICTED?

Answer: Yes

Trump on Thursday was indicted on four counts – including conspiracy to defraud the U.S. government and obstruct the electoral count – in relation to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The 45-page indictment says he was ‘determined to remain in power’ despite ‘having lost’ the presidency to Biden.

Experts expect the trial to proceed quickly, given that much of the evidence was discovered by the House special committee investigating the January 6th insurrection and, unlike special counsel Jack Smith’s other case, it doesn’t involve classified information.

The trial could be concluded by early next year.

But if Trump is convicted, there is nothing to stop him from continuing his presidential campaign.

‘There was nothing in the Constitution which says a convicted felon can’t run. Even if that felon is in prison,’ American University’s Alan Lichtman told DailyMail.com.

The Constitution has basic requirements: A person must be at least 35 years old, be born in the United States and have lived in the United States for at least 14 years.

Other candidates have run for office from prison.

‘There are examples of felons running for office from jail,’ Fergus Cullen, the former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party told DailyMail.com. ‘Former congressman Jim Traficant from Ohio did this and, though he lost, did get significant votes. The current mayor of Bridgeport, CT, Joe Ganim, was mayor, got convicted on corruption charges, did time, and then got elected again as mayor.’

CAN TRUMP RUN FOR PRESIDENT FROM PRISON?

Answer: Yes – with some unprecedented accommodations

There have been presidential candidates who have been on the ballot while serving time.

Eugene V. Debs, in 1920, ran as the Socialist presidential candidate while imprisoned in the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary for speaking out against the draft during World War I.

His supporters spoke for him, running his campaign and talking to voters.

Debs and his running mate Emil Seidel garnered 913,693 votes, but not a single electoral votes. Republican Warren Harding took the white House.

Debs’ supporters, including film star Mae West, lobbied to get him pardoned. Debs was never pardoned but Harding had him released from prison.

Trump, if convicted, could end up in a minimum-security federal prison where he could have some internet access, meaning he could be able to write some posts on Truth Social and communicate via email.

‘The Bureau of Prisons has to authorize any requests for special treatment. Depending on where he is housed, probably if incarcerated, it would be a camp or lowest level of security prison and he would have limited access to a phone. Inmates don’t have unfettered access to the internet, but can have some access to email. Whether Trump gets greater access or special treatment by BOP remains to be seen if he goes to prison,’ former federal prosecutor Joan Meyer said.

There is even a small possibility Trump, if convicted, could be sentenced to home arrest, where he would be tracked with an ankle bracelet.

Or he could be put in separate housing given that he would have a Secret Service detail and special needs that could qualify him from being incarcerated with the general prison population.

‘The exact nature of the housing is speculative at this point but he would likely be housed in an environment in which he would have minimal or no contact with other inmates,’ said Tess Lopez, a federal sentencing expert.

‘Currently, special housing exists for inmates that need protection such as former law enforcement officers, witness protection inmates, etc. One could speculate that the Bureau of Prisons could use similar measures to protect the former president,’ she noted.

Otherwise, his campaign staff could handle fund-raising and other campaign activities if he is incarcerated.

BUT CAN HE WIN THE PRESIDENCY FROM PRISON?

Answer: Yes, but it will be a lot harder

Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote in each election since 1992.

But he told DailyMail.com he has no sense of how Trump campaigning from prison – if the hypothetical scenario comes to pass – affects the race.

‘I don’t have a key for that,’ he said. ‘You can’t have it in a system that’s based on this. We’d be an uncharted territory. … But just from my knowledge of American politics and American history, I don’t believe he can win a general election running from prison. It’s, you know, it’s such a stigma, particularly if he’s imprisoned for undermining our national security or undermining our democracy. Yeah. His base may not crack. Well, I think it may but his base is nowhere near enough to win a general election. He has to expand his face and I don’t see how he expands it sitting in prison.’

He also said it’s best for President Joe Biden to ignore Trump and focus on his own accomplishments in office.

‘Presidential elections are basically votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House. Governing,’ he pointed out, ‘what you’ve done for the American people, and how you are going to continue to doing things for the American people. And if Trump is stuck in jail, just ignore him.’

Even if convicted, Trump may not be in prison during the 2024 election. He would be expected to appeal and to stay out of jail during that process.

‘I think it’s uncommon for people not to have to start serving until the appeals run out,’ said UVA Professor of Law Saikrishna Prakash.

‘Even if he’s convicted, it’s not clear to me he’s going to be in jail as soon as the conviction is issued because I think he’ll appeal.’

COULD TRUMP PARDON HIMSELF?

Answer: Potentially, but it’s unprecedented

‘We don’t know. That’s gonna go to the Supreme Court. Obviously, it’d be a case of first impression. We’ve never had anything remotely like that,’ Lichtman said.

But, even if a pardon held, it would only be for the federal cases Jack Smith is overseeing for the Justice Department. The state cases in New York and Georgia will still stand.

‘He can try to pardon himself on the federal level but state convictions still stand. There would probably be litigation over whether a President could use his pardon power under the Constitution to pardon himself,’ Meyer said.

If Trump wins the 2024 election and is appealing a conviction or still facing federal trial, all federal cases would likely stop.

The president would name his own attorney general and Trump would likely name someone who would end the federal cases against him.

Plus, it’s Justice Department policy not to indict or try a sitting president.

‘This election may very well be about Donald Trump’s personal freedom,’ said Ari Fleischer, a longtime Republican strategist, told the Associated Press. ‘It’s not an exaggeration to say, if convicted, he could be sentenced to prison unless he wins and he uses the levers of justice to reverse it or stop it or drop it.’

COULD TRUMP BE REMOVED FROM THE BALLOT?

Answer: Possibly

The 14th amendment, put in place in the bitter aftermath of the Civil War, states officeholders who have ‘engaged in insurrection or rebellion’ against the United States are unable to hold federal office.

The watchdog organization Citizens For Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has vowed to challenge Trump’s candidacy, if he is the nominee, on this count.

‘It is as significant of a qualification as all the others,’ Donald Sherman, CREW’s senior vice-president and chief counsel, said.

Still Trump and his team are arguing he had a first amendment right to express his thoughts about the 2020 election.

The 14th amendment was used to disqualify Cowboys for Trump’ founder Couy Griffin from holding the county commissioner seat he’d be elected to. Griffin was convicted to storming the Capitol during the insurrection.

But Trump hasn’t been convicted yet and his indictment doesn’t mention ‘insurrection.’ It just accuses Trump of trying to ‘exploit’ the violence by continuing to push to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.

WOULD BIDEN PARDON TRUMP?

Answer: Only Joe can answer that

Gerald Ford famously pardoned Richard Nixon to help the nation move on.

Would President Joe Biden do the same for Donald Trump? Only he can answer that question.

But if Trump was convicted, ran for president and one, would Biden pardon him to allow the will of the people stand and the transition process to move forward?

‘Practically speaking, that would make a lot of sense because you think he’s gonna be president anyway,’ Prakash said. ‘There’s transition things that have to get done. It might be easier for him to do them if he’s not in prison. And it might be magnanimous for Biden to do that. I’m not sure he would do it because it’s going to be a bitter election. And you know, Trump’s not going to be soft on him now.’

COULD TRUMP VOTE FOR HIMSELF IN THE 2024 ELECTION IF CONVICTED?

Answer: Probably not.

Trump is registered to vote in Florida, where convicted felons don’t have the right to vote.

Many felons in Florida regain voting rights after completing their full sentence, including parole or probation, and paying all fines and fees. But it is highly unlikely that Trump, if convicted, would have time to complete his sentence before Election Day.

Trump still owns property in New York and could switch his voting registration there. New York allows felons to vote while on parole or probation. But, they are still disenfranchised while in prison.

This means there is a scenario where Trump is on the ballot in 2024 but unable to vote for himself.

Naftali, the researcher and presidential historian at Columbia, said there is more at stake than Donald Trump’s prison record.

He said the case is about ‘whether there are real consequences for trying to overturn a presidential election. That’s a very, very important test. Because if there are no consequences for powerful people in attempting what Trump and his co-conspirators allegedly attempted, then we’ll see this again.’

‘And we’ll not just see it at the federal level. We will see it at the state level. We will see people planting lies about the stability and trustworthiness of our electoral system. And that will be poisonous for any democracy. It’ll be very poisonous for the United States. And that’s what’s at stake here.’