Iran said Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian extremist group Hamas, was killed on July 31 in Tehran in a raid that it accused Israel of carrying out and which has sparked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it was investigating the attack that killed the 62-year-old Haniyeh while he was in Tehran to attend the July 30 inauguration ceremony for Iran’s new president, Masud Pezeshkian.
Flash Analysis: The Killing Of Ismail Haniyeh
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in a posh northern Tehran neighborhood — only a few hours after the targeted killing of a top Lebanese Hizballah commander in Beirut — is a major embarrassment for the Islamic republic and its security services. As recently as July 30, the Hamas leader had met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was then given a hero’s welcome in parliament during new President Masud Pezeshkian’s inauguration ceremony, in which representatives of other Iranian proxy groups in the region were present.
Haniyeh’s assassination also, in effect, eliminates the possibility of a hostage deal between Hamas and Israel in the near future, prolonging the war in Gaza, and dramatically increasing the risk of a wider conflict in the region.
In a swift response, Khamenei promised “severe punishment” for Israel, saying revenge was a “duty.” The last time Khamenei used such language was in April when the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel following the assassination of a top Iranian general in Iran’s consulate in Damascus.
A military response by Tehran at this stage seems certain, but the challenge for Khamenei and Iran’s proxies is to calibrate it to avoid an all-out war, something the Islamic republic doesn’t want at this point.
— Kambiz Fattahi, director of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
The Iran-backed Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Hamas confirmed the news in a post on its Telegram channel on July 31, saying Haniyeh was killed in an “air strike on his residence in Tehran.”
The Israeli government has yet to comment officially, but a photo of Haniyeh with a stamp on his forehead saying “Eliminated” was posted on the Government Press Office’s Facebook page. The post, which was later deleted without explanation, did not specifically claim the strike was carried out by Israel, though it noted the Hamas official “was killed in a precise strike in Tehran.”
Haniyeh’s death came the same day that the United States carried out a strike in Iraq, raising concerns about the possibility of an all-out war in the Middle East. Washington claimed as self-defense the strike inside a base south of Baghdad that is used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. It said the attack killed four members of the group, which contains several Iran-aligned armed militias, and wounded four others.
Although Haniyeh’s death has sparked fears of an escalation in the region, Ali Mamouri, a research fellow with Australia’s Deakin University and Middle East specialist, said the situation is “still far from a full-scale regional war.”
“However, the existing rules where both sides exercise restraint to a very limited level of engagement will change, and new levels of conflict will arise,” he told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
“We will witness more attacks by Iran’s allies in the region on Israeli territory rather than directly from Iran,” he added. “I think that the level of tension will escalate and might lead us toward relatively dangerous borders.”
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Radio Farda that there was “a likelihood that the Iranians will look for a way to react to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh.”
“But I think that the fact that the Israeli government did not recognize publicly and officially any responsibility…will somehow influence the extent or the extremity of the Iranian reaction. I think it will be somewhat more moderate than under different circumstances,” he said.
Meanwhile, Pezeshkian said in a statement, less than 24 hours after his inauguration, that Iran “will defend its territorial integrity” after the attack, though he did not say how.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also vowed revenge against Israel over the killing.
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas immediately condemned Haniyeh’s killing, calling it a “cowardly act and dangerous development,” according to the Palestinian state news agency WAFA.
Several countries denounced the attack, with Russia calling it an “unacceptable political assassination,” while Turkey warned it would extend the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The killing of Haniyeh comes as Washington is making a push to get Hamas and Israel to agree to a temporary cease-fire and a deal to release hostages being held in Gaza. Senior officials from the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt are engaged in the latest round of talks to secure such a deal.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that Washington was “not aware of or involved in” Haniyeh’s assassination and wouldn’t speculate on the impact it might have on the region.
He did say, however, that the “best way to bring the temperature down” is to keep pushing for a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.
“We will continue to labor that for as long as it takes to get there,” he told Channel News Asia while on a two-day official visit to Singapore. “It’s vitally important to help end the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. It’s vitally important to get the hostages home…. It’s vitally important to hopefully put things on a better path for more enduring peace and more enduring security, so that focus remains.”
Earlier on July 30, Israel claimed it had “eliminated” Fuad Shukr, the Hizballah militant commander Israel alleges was behind a weekend rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli youths in Beirut.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a post on the X social media network that Shukr has “directed” attacks by Hizballah.
There was no immediate response from Hizballah.
Shukr was wanted by U.S. authorities for his alleged involvement in a 1983 attack on U.S. troops in Beirut. Washington had offered up to $5 million for information on Shukr, who is also known as al-Hajj Mohsin and is on the U.S. terrorist list.
Hizballah, which rarely shies away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets, has denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, but Israel had vowed to retaliate against the Iran-backed group.
Israel has vowed to kill leaders of Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack inside Israeli territory that killed 1,200 people. Around 250 others were taken hostage, some of whom have since been released.
Some of the hostages have died while in Gaza as Israel carries out a massive military operation it says is aimed at eliminating Hamas. Some of the hostages are believed to still be alive.
“Assassinating the Hamas leader will make negotiations and de-escalation more difficult. Things will become more violent and the situation will worsen, it will not improve,” said Areepen Uttarasin, a Thai politician who has been one of the negotiators in talks to free the hostages being held in Gaza by Hamas.
Haniyeh had been part of Hamas for decades and became its political chief in 2017. He lived in the Gaza Strip until 2019, when he moved to live in exile in Qatar.
He had emerged as one of its most visible leaders during the war with Israel in Gaza as he shuttled between countries in the Middle East to attend international negotiations over the conflict, including the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas.
With additional reporting by Reuters
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