Verify: Does the FBI’s 2022 estimated crime data paint an accurate picture of New York?
NEW YORK — Estimated crime statistics for 2022 were released by the FBI this week compiling some 11 million criminal offenses nationwide.
The data is supposed to show what crimes are happening more often and what types are not; divided into two categories violent crime and property crime.
According to the FBI, last year violent crime fell nationwide but property crime increased. There was a 6.1% drop in homicide nationwide, compared to the previous year, and the property crime increase was largely fueled by a jump in vehicle thefts the agency reported.
The FBI’s data depends on self-reporting by law enforcement agencies nationwide and therefore needs some context, especially when looking at New York State.
Whether you’re a politician or a parent, crime is something that all of us worry about, but does the FBI crime data paint an accurate picture?
Our sources are the FBI, the Department of Justice, and Tim Lauger, a Criminal Justice Professor at Niagara University.
Off the bat, the conclusions about property crime going up and violent crime going down may be true nationwide but because a lot of crimes go unreported to police they aren’t included in the FBI’s data.
Last year, the FBI also switched over to a new police report system called the National Incident-Based Reporting System or NIBRS, and not all police agencies have adopted it.
In fact, according to the non-profit news organization, the Marshall Project only 24 percent of law enforcement agencies in New York used it in 2022.
“There is a little bit of uncertainly on the accuracy of the data because of some reporting issues with this new transition so we’re not 100% certain that the trends are exactly what’s going on and there is always problems with reported data because a lot of crime is not reported to the police,” said Tim Lauger, a criminal justice associate professor at Niagara University.
Lauger explained that’s why every year the U.S. Department of Justice puts out a National Crime Victimization Survey, which asks crime victims to self-report incidents.
Lauger said that surveys along with the FBI data are what criminologists use to get a true sense of crime nationwide and usually the two line up.
But this year they didn’t.
“The National Crime Victimization Survey actually indicates violent crime and property crime have increased a decent amount over the last year and so it’s not consistent with the official [FBI] data we usually see consistency across both data sources,” Lauger said.
That mismatch between the National Crime Victimization Survey and the FBI leads to skepticism Lauger said. He suggested caution when reading into the FBI’s New York-specific crime information.
Because the bottom line is, that a lack of reporting may make it look like crime is down when it may not be.
What the DOJ, the FBI, and Lauger agree on however is that over the last 30 years, crime has fallen overall.
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