The political and potential economic benefits of El Salvador’s state of emergency may inspire other regional governments to implement similar measures, which could create new safety, reputational and migratory risks. If other Latin American countries implement counter-crime states of emergency, even to a lesser extent than El Salvador, criminal groups would likely retaliate against government security forces, leading to bursts of violence that include public shootouts and bombings. El Salvador experienced these security impacts in the weeks following the state of emergency’s implementation, though violence declined as the number of arrests spiked over subsequent months. However, if other countries’ states of emergency are less successful, elevated crime rates could persist for months or years, creating safety risks for local residents and businesses operating in the region.…
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